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STATE OF THE MAVS: 1/8th Point
#1
Lightbulb 
9 games into a 72 game season, the Mavs have just reached the 1/8th point of the season. Let's see how they are doing:

Record: 5-4 (4th in the West, 9th in the NBA)
Offensive Rating: 110.7 (15th
Defensive Rating: 106.3 (5th
Net Rating: +4.4 (7th)

Strength of Schedule: 14th
Pace: 26th
Free Throw Rate: 0.305 (3rd)
3 Point Rate: 0.462 (3rd)

Offensive eFG%: 0.537 (15th)
Offensive Turnover %: 12.6% (10th)
Offensive Rebound %: 18.2% (24th)
Offensive FT/FGA: 0.234 (2nd)

Defensive eFG%: 0.513 (6th)
Defensive Turnover %: 14.2% (7th)
Defensive Rebound %: 79.4% (9th)
Defensive FT/FGA: 0.233 (25th)


Take aways?
  • The Mavs are playing GOOD defense other than fouling a lot.
  • The Mavs offense has been middling other than getting to the free throw line.
  • The Mavs are shooting lots of threes and playing at a slow pace.
  • The Mavs are in a good position in the standings and statistically while having played an average strength schedule the first 8th of the season without their second best player who should improve both the defense and the offense.

Big questions moving forward:

1) When does KP come back?

2) How many players (and games) are the Mavs going to lose due to COVID-19 protocols?


[Image: source.gif]
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#2
(01-10-2021, 02:49 PM)Kammrath Wrote: Pace: 26th


I hate this. It's significantly more difficult to get good shots this way, imo. 

Not sure if it's by design (to help the defense), or if there are other, unintentional contributors, such as Luka starting off a little slowly, the shooting (and therefore spacing) starting a little slowly or maybe just the fact that the team is trying to work in some new players who might not fit like a glove into what the team had going on offense last season. Maybe all of the above.


#3
https://twitter.com/bobbykaralla/status/...4111679494

FYI, Bobby is using the NBA.com numbers and I used the basketballreference numbers.


#4
(01-10-2021, 03:27 PM)KillerLeft Wrote: I hate this. It's significantly more difficult to get good shots this way, imo. 

Not sure if it's by design (to help the defense), or if there are other, unintentional contributors, such as Luka starting off a little slowly, the shooting (and therefore spacing) starting a little slowly or maybe just the fact that the team is trying to work in some new players who might not fit like a glove into what the team had going on offense last season. Maybe all of the above.

Scheme. And it goes both ways. Even though the Mavs are more agressive on defense they rarely gamble and try to prevent transition points at all costs (basically ignoring the offensive board). Same on the defensive board. The Mavs don´t have a high volume rebounding big. Because of that rebounding becomes a team effort. No one is allowed to cheat up the court.
Next important part is the flow offense that always comes with a slower pace. It takes a few seconds to get the initial action started and most of the time the ball goes through multiple hands before before someone takes a shot.
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#5
(01-10-2021, 03:27 PM)KillerLeft Wrote: It's significantly more difficult to get good shots this way, imo. 


I do think fastbreak shots tend to be really good looks, so I think any time you can get them the better. 

BUT I think if you have someone like Luka, then running your offense deliberately should get you REALLY good looks most of the time. And in my estimation, you give Luka the time and he will generally generate a good look for the team. I think having KP out and not having a 3rd star means that you want to be more deliberate. Hopefully with KP back they will be able to play a little quicker.
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#6
(01-10-2021, 03:44 PM)dirkfansince1998 Wrote: Next important part is the flow offense that always comes with a slower pace. It takes a few seconds to get the initial action started and most of the time the ball goes through multiple hands before before someone takes a shot.


I disagree with this. I'd be willing to bet a lot that the pace was much higher than 26th at this time last year. 

Agree about ignoring the offensive glass, but that's not a Mavs thing - it's a good team thing, imo. I couldn't care less about offensive rebounds, but giving up points in transition is incredibly frustrating. I do remember that the Mavs made a philosophical shift last season to focus on the offensive glass a BIT more, but for the majority of Carlisle's time here, transition defense has been one of his main focus points. I have observed that fans rarely give credit for this and focus on what you have to give up instead, taking the transition D for granted. But, if the transition D was consistently bad, they would ROAST him for that.


#7
(01-10-2021, 03:44 PM)dirkfansince1998 Wrote: try to prevent transition points at all costs


The Mavs are 6th in the league in giving up only 11.3 fast break pts per game. They are 8th in the league giving up 42.2 points in the paint per game. They are 20th though in giving second chance points (and a couple of their losses were almost single handedly because of second chance points).


#8
(01-10-2021, 03:46 PM)Kammrath Wrote: I do think fastbreak shots tend to be really good looks, so I think any time you can get them the better. 

BUT I think if you have someone like Luka, then running your offense deliberately should get you REALLY good looks most of the time. And in my estimation, you give Luka the time and he will generally generate a good look for the team. I think having KP out and not having a 3rd star means that you want to be more deliberate. Hopefully with KP back they will be able to play a little quicker.

Yeah, I'm just talking about the energetic approach of getting the ball up the court and getting the first offensive action going more quickly, resulting in the first good look occurring earlier in the shot clock, or, against a good defense, giving yourself time for a 2nd or 3rd action. 

I have a hard time believing Carlisle has DECIDED to play at a lesser pace, given that in most games we see him violently circling his arms as Luka brings the ball up slowly, as if to say "LET'S GO!"

EDIT: this was all meant as a further clarification of MY opinion, not necessarily as a response to YOURS.
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#9
I blame Luka's fat ass. He is spending more energy on D than normal and needs to take a breather. Wink
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#10
@KillerLeft the Mavs were 18th in pace last year and are only playing SLIGHTLY slower this year. They were 19th Luka's rookie year. 

When you look at the numbers of these last three seasons the Mavs are basically playing at the exact same pace.


#11
(01-11-2021, 12:00 AM)Kammrath Wrote: @KillerLeft the Mavs were 18th in pace last year and are only playing SLIGHTLY slower this year. They were 19th Luka's rookie year. 

When you look at the numbers of these last three seasons the Mavs are basically playing at the exact same pace.

Well, I'm happy to know that. But to my eye, something is noticeably different with the offense, even during stretches when it is successful. 

Who knows, maybe they're just shading the defense towards Luka's spots more consistently.

Every possession this year seems painful, like creating good shots is really, really difficult for them. 

I don't remember ever feeling like that last year. At least, not until the last 3-4 minutes of close games.


#12
(01-11-2021, 12:03 AM)KillerLeft Wrote: maybe they're just shading the defense towards Luka's spots more consistently.


I think defenses have started off this year giving Luka INCREDIBLE attention and gearing everything to limiting his ability to penetrate into the heart of the D. I anticipate he and RC will adjust to that soon enough and we will see the Mavs start attacking whatever that approach exposes as a weakness.


#13
Having KP back will make it a lot harder for defenses to do that.
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#14
https://twitter.com/coopmavs/status/1348681109790470145

https://media.giphy.com/media/W6x6Kosi14BUI/giphy.gif
Luka is 20 years old in his 2nd season and is a serious MVP candidate already... Halleluka...


#15
In the 10 game segment thread I did last year, I stressed consistently winning 60% of our games and how important that has always been. Our first segment was 6-4. We have a chance to do that after an inconsistent start. 

Our second segment was 8-2. That set up our season not having to play from behind. I would love to see that because, this year, with KP and better game closing, we could do much better than last year.

I really like the 1/8 season break down but we still need to look at consistent 60% because that is what top 4 seed teams have always done though in the West, Top 4 now takes several wins above that pace. 

I really hope KP leads us to a surge we had already begun. Not playing tonight is probably good as being that short handed would have hurt us most likely. Let's hope we can keep our Covid game record to 1-0.
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This Reunion Rowdie says the AAC needs "Luka's Lunatics" for the Luka/KP and gang era.


#16
Synergy graph:

[Image: Ern-RhtXEAEp7cl?format=png&name=large]
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